NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.
Track the Bitcoin Barometer — eight indicators combined into one daily score — in the NakamotoNotes app.
If you've spent any time following Bitcoin markets, you've seen the Fear & Greed Index. It's one of the most widely shared Bitcoin metrics — a single number from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed) that claims to capture market sentiment. It's simple, visual, and everywhere.
So why did we build something different?
What the Fear & Greed Index Actually Measures
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, published by Alternative.me, pulls from several market signals: Bitcoin's price volatility and momentum (accounting for the largest share of the score), social media sentiment, Bitcoin's market dominance, and Google Trends data.
It's a reasonable proxy for short-term sentiment. When Bitcoin has risen sharply and social media is euphoric, it reads high. When price is falling and discussion is fearful, it reads low.
The limitation: it is almost entirely backward-looking on price action. A sharp three-day rally will push it toward Greed even if every underlying on-chain metric says the market is not extended. A sharp correction will push it toward Fear even if Bitcoin is statistically cheap by historical on-chain standards.
The index measures how traders are feeling about recent price movement — not where Bitcoin stands in its longer market cycle.
What the Bitcoin Barometer Measures
The Bitcoin Barometer in NakamotoNotes is a composite score from 0 to 100, updated daily, combining eight independent indicators:
- Mayer Multiple — price relative to the 200-day moving average. Below 1.0 has historically marked deep corrections; above 2.4 has marked cycle peaks.
- MVRV Z-Score — compares market cap to realized cap. Measures whether Bitcoin holders are, in aggregate, sitting on large unrealized gains (historically overheated) or unrealized losses (historically undervalued).
- NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) — the proportion of the total Bitcoin supply currently in profit. At cycle peaks, most supply is in profit; in bear markets, large portions are held at a loss.
- Puell Multiple — measures daily miner revenue relative to its 365-day average. High miner revenue can signal market tops; low miner revenue has historically preceded recoveries.
- Monthly RSI — the Relative Strength Index on the monthly timeframe. Monthly RSI above 80 has coincided with historical cycle tops; below 40 has often marked major buying opportunities.
- Pi Cycle Top Indicator — tracks the relationship between two specific Bitcoin moving averages. When the short-term average crosses above the long-term average, it has historically signaled cycle peaks within days.
- Fear & Greed Index — included as one of eight inputs, not as the primary signal.
- Google Search Trends — tracks search interest in "Bitcoin." Peak search interest has historically accompanied price peaks; low search interest often coincides with bear market lows.
Each indicator contributes equally to the Barometer score. No single metric dominates.
Why the Difference Matters
Consider a scenario: Bitcoin's price has risen 20% in two weeks. The Fear & Greed Index moves from 35 (Fear) to 72 (Greed) — a significant shift in just days, driven entirely by the price move and associated social media activity.
In that same period, the MVRV Z-Score remains well below historical danger zones. NUPL is still in the "Optimism" range, far from historical peaks. The Puell Multiple is moderate. Monthly RSI is at 55 — mid-range, not extended.
The Fear & Greed Index says Greed. The underlying on-chain data says the market is not historically extended. These are two different things.
The Bitcoin Barometer is designed to surface the second picture — the one based on market cycle position, not recent price momentum.
When Each Is Useful
The Fear & Greed Index has legitimate uses. For traders making short-term decisions, knowing that sentiment is at an extreme can be relevant. Extreme Fear readings have often been accompanied by short-term price bounces; Extreme Greed readings have sometimes preceded short-term corrections.
The Bitcoin Barometer is built for a different question: where is Bitcoin in its longer market cycle? It is most relevant for investors with a longer time horizon — people thinking in months and years, not days and weeks.
Current reading (May 21, 2026): Barometer at 21/100 — CHILL zone. Bitcoin price: $77,913. This reflects on-chain data suggesting Bitcoin is currently in a historically calm, non-extended market phase — not the picture you'd get from price momentum alone.
What "CHILL" Means
The Barometer uses four zones:
- CHILL (0–40): On-chain metrics are calm and not historically extended. Historically this has been a favorable accumulation environment.
- WARM (40–60): Market is in a mid-range, balanced phase. No strong on-chain signal in either direction.
- HOT (60–80): Metrics are elevated. On-chain data suggests the market is heating up.
- FIRE (80–100): Metrics are historically extreme. On-chain data is in the range that has preceded major corrections.
These zones are descriptions of where Bitcoin sits in historical context — not predictions of what price will do next.
Open the NakamotoNotes app to see the current Barometer score and the breakdown of all eight indicators.
NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.
