Bitcoin's price movements look chaotic from the outside. At the on-chain level, they are not. Every transaction, every coin moved, every miner's revenue — all of it is recorded on a public ledger and available for analysis.
The investors who consistently outperform across Bitcoin cycles are not better at predicting the future. They are better at reading the data that already exists. These five indicators form the foundation of systematic Bitcoin analysis.
1. MVRV Z-Score
What it measures: The relationship between Bitcoin's current market cap and its "realized cap" — the aggregate price at which every coin last moved on-chain — normalized by standard deviation.
Why it matters: The realized cap represents the actual cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation. When market cap far exceeds realized cap (high Z-Score), holders are sitting on large unrealized profits — a historically reliable signal that selling pressure will increase. When market cap falls below realized cap (negative Z-Score), more than half of all Bitcoin is underwater — a condition that has historically marked market bottoms.
How to read it:
- Z-Score > 7: Historically marks macro tops. Seen at every major Bitcoin peak.
- Z-Score 2–7: Elevated but not extreme. Neutral to cautious positioning.
- Z-Score 0–2: Fair value range. No directional edge.
- Z-Score < 0: Bitcoin below aggregate cost basis. Historically strong accumulation signal.
Current reading (April 2026): Near 0 — historically favorable accumulation territory.
Track it in NakamotoNotes: The Barometer's on-chain component weights MVRV Z-Score as a primary input. Daily readings with historical context are available in the app.
2. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
What it measures: The proportion of Bitcoin's total market cap that represents unrealized profit (or loss) across all holders.
The formula: (Market Cap – Realized Cap) / Market Cap.
A reading of 0.6 means 60% of Bitcoin's current market value represents unrealized profit — holders have paper gains equivalent to 60% of the total cap.
Why it matters: NUPL tracks the psychological state of the entire Bitcoin market in a single number. When NUPL is near 1 (maximum profit), holders have strong incentive to take gains — increasing sell pressure. When NUPL is near 0 or negative (maximum pain), the capitulation phase is most intense — and historically, the best time to accumulate.
How to read it:
- 0.75–1.0: Euphoria / Greed. Cycle top territory.
- 0.5–0.75: Belief / Optimism. Bull market, reduce new exposure.
- 0.25–0.5: Hope / Optimism. Neutral, fair value.
- 0–0.25: Fear / Capitulation. Strong accumulation zone.
- Negative: Extreme capitulation. Historically rare and very high opportunity.
Current reading (April 2026): 0.21 — deep in fear/capitulation territory.
Historical validation: Every instance of NUPL below 0.25 in Bitcoin's history has been followed by positive 12-month returns. Sample size: 9 occasions across 3 market cycles.
3. Puell Multiple
What it measures: The daily value of Bitcoin issued to miners (in USD) divided by the 365-day moving average of that value.
In other words: are miners making more or less money right now than they have on average over the past year?
Why it matters: Miners are Bitcoin's largest forced sellers. They must convert mining revenue to USD to cover operational costs (electricity, hardware, staff). When the Puell Multiple is very low, miners are earning far below their average revenue — many are operating at a loss and selling everything they mine just to survive. This creates selling pressure, but it also means the weakest miners are exiting the market. When the Multiple is high, miners are earning far above average, incentivizing them to hold and expand.
How to read it:
- > 4: Miners earning 4x their annual average. Historically precedes market tops.
- 1–4: Normal operating range. No directional signal.
- 0.5–1: Below average miner revenue. Neutral to slightly bullish.
- < 0.5: Significant miner stress. Historically strong accumulation signal — correlates with miner capitulation.
Current reading (April 2026): 0.38 — well below the 0.5 threshold, indicating miner stress and historically favorable conditions.
The halving connection: Each Bitcoin halving (approximately every 4 years) cuts miner block rewards in half. Puell Multiple typically drops sharply post-halving before recovering as price adjusts upward. This cyclical pattern makes the Puell Multiple particularly valuable in the 6–18 months following a halving.
4. Mayer Multiple
What it measures: Bitcoin's current price divided by its 200-day moving average (200DMA).
Why it matters: The 200-day moving average is the most widely used long-term trend indicator in financial markets. The Mayer Multiple tells you how far above or below this baseline Bitcoin is currently trading.
When Bitcoin is trading at 2x the 200DMA, it is historically extended and overheated. When it trades below the 200DMA, it is historically cheap relative to its own trend.
How to read it:
- > 2.4: Historically preceded significant corrections. Rare.
- 1.5–2.4: Extended but within bull market norms.
- 1.0–1.5: Normal trading range, above trend.
- < 1.0: Below 200DMA. Historically excellent long-term entry. Has occurred in only ~15% of Bitcoin's trading days.
Current reading (April 2026): 0.87 — Bitcoin is trading below its 200-day moving average. This has historically represented one of the best risk-adjusted entry points in each market cycle.
The "under 1.0" rule: Research by Trace Mayer established that buying Bitcoin on any day the Mayer Multiple was below 1.0 and holding for 12 months has resulted in positive returns in the majority of historical instances.
5. Fear & Greed Index
What it measures: A composite sentiment score (0–100) built from five data sources: volatility (25%), market momentum (25%), social media sentiment (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%), and Google Trends (15%), plus surveys (10%).
Why it matters: Unlike on-chain indicators, Fear & Greed measures human psychology directly. It is the most real-time indicator available — updating daily — and it captures the emotional state of the broader market.
The contrarian application: extreme fear historically represents buying opportunities; extreme greed historically signals risk.
How to read it:
- 0–24: Extreme Fear. Contrarian accumulation signal.
- 25–44: Fear. Below-average sentiment, slightly bullish contrarian signal.
- 45–55: Neutral. No directional edge.
- 56–75: Greed. Elevated sentiment, reduce new exposure.
- 76–100: Extreme Greed. Historically precedes corrections.
Current reading (April 2026): 19 — Extreme Fear.
Calibration note: Fear & Greed is a sentiment indicator, not a fundamentals indicator. It should be used in conjunction with on-chain data rather than in isolation. When Extreme Fear coincides with low MVRV Z-Score, low NUPL, and low Puell Multiple — as it does currently — the confluence is historically very significant.
How These Five Indicators Work Together
Individual indicators can produce false signals. The power of a multi-indicator framework is confluence — when multiple independent data sources point in the same direction simultaneously.
Current confluence (April 2026):
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| MVRV Z-Score | ~0 | Accumulate |
| NUPL | 0.21 | Accumulate |
| Puell Multiple | 0.38 | Accumulate |
| Mayer Multiple | 0.87 | Accumulate |
| Fear & Greed | 19 | Accumulate |
All five indicators simultaneously in historically favorable territory. This configuration has appeared at or near the beginning of every major Bitcoin bull run in the asset's history.
The NakamotoNotes Barometer: All Five in One Score
Tracking all five indicators individually takes time and requires interpreting potentially conflicting signals. The NakamotoNotes Barometer synthesizes these five (plus three additional indicators) into a single 0–100 score with a clear zone designation.
Current Barometer reading: 18/100 — CHILL Zone.
The app updates daily, displays each indicator's individual reading alongside the composite score, provides historical context going back to Bitcoin's early cycles, and allows custom alerts for zone changes.
Start Tracking the Indicators That Matter
Understanding these five indicators takes Bitcoin investing from reactive price-watching to proactive, data-driven analysis. The market will always generate noise — social media, news cycles, price volatility. These indicators filter that noise and surface the underlying signal.
Download NakamotoNotes — track all five indicators and the Barometer live. Available on iOS and Android.
This article is for educational purposes only. Bitcoin investments carry significant risk. Past indicator performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
