NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.
The NakamotoNotes Bitcoin Barometer tracks eight on-chain indicators daily so you don't have to do the math yourself.
"Is Bitcoin cheap right now?" is one of the most commonly asked questions in Bitcoin communities — and one of the hardest to answer without a framework.
Price alone tells you nothing. Bitcoin at $30,000 is not obviously cheaper than Bitcoin at $60,000 if on-chain metrics suggest the market is in very different positions at each price level. "Cheap" has to mean something relative to historical context, not just absolute price.
Here's how to think about it using on-chain data.
What "Cheap" Actually Means in On-Chain Terms
A useful definition: Bitcoin is historically cheap when most long-term on-chain indicators are reading in ranges that, in the past, preceded major price recoveries. The inverse — Bitcoin is historically expensive — is when those same indicators are in ranges that have historically preceded corrections.
No indicator perfectly predicts price. But several indicators have a consistent record of being elevated at cycle peaks and depressed at cycle lows. Watching the aggregate tends to be more reliable than watching any single metric.
The Indicators That Matter Most
1. Mayer Multiple
The Mayer Multiple divides current price by the 200-day moving average. It answers: how far above or below its long-term trend is Bitcoin trading?
- Below 1.0: Price is below the 200-day average. This has historically been a strong accumulation signal. It occurred during the 2018-2019 bear market, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 bear market.
- 1.0 to 1.5: Price is near or moderately above average — the range where Bitcoin spends most of its time.
- Above 2.4: Price is significantly extended above the 200-day average. This level has historically marked late-cycle euphoria.
A Mayer Multiple below 1.0 doesn't guarantee a bottom — but it has historically been the range where patient, long-horizon buyers have been rewarded.
2. MVRV Z-Score
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap — the aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin on the network, calculated from the price each coin last moved.
When the MVRV Z-Score is negative (market cap below realized cap), most Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses. Historically, this has been a rare condition that has often preceded recoveries. During the 2018-2019 bear market bottom and the June 2022 low, MVRV went negative briefly before significant rallies.
When MVRV is very high, the average holder has large unrealized gains — historically a condition associated with late bull markets and approaching peaks.
3. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL measures what percentage of Bitcoin's market cap represents unrealized profit versus unrealized loss. It runs from -1 to 1:
- Negative NUPL (Capitulation): Most of the network is in loss. Historically associated with bear market bottoms.
- 0 to 0.25 (Hope/Fear): Modest net profits — early recovery phase.
- 0.25 to 0.5 (Optimism): Moderate gains across the network — mid-cycle.
- 0.75 to 1.0 (Euphoria/Greed): Near-universal unrealized gains — historically late-cycle danger zone.
4. Puell Multiple
The Puell Multiple measures miner daily revenue against its 365-day average. When miner revenue is extremely low relative to the annual average — often during bear markets when price is depressed — the Puell Multiple falls into ranges that have historically preceded recoveries. When miner revenue surges in bull markets, the Puell Multiple rises and has often coincided with cycle tops.
The Problem with Reading Any Single Indicator
Each of these metrics can give false signals on its own. A low Mayer Multiple during a prolonged bear market might look like a buying opportunity for months before the actual bottom. NUPL can stay in "Hope" territory for an extended period.
The more reliable approach is to look at what multiple indicators are saying simultaneously. When the Mayer Multiple is below 1.0, MVRV is low, NUPL is in the "Fear" range, and the Puell Multiple is depressed — the confluence of signals has historically been a more meaningful accumulation indicator than any single metric alone.
How the Bitcoin Barometer Aggregates This
The Bitcoin Barometer in NakamotoNotes combines eight indicators — Mayer Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Puell Multiple, Monthly RSI, Pi Cycle Top Indicator, Fear & Greed Index, and Google Search Trends — into a single score from 0 to 100, updated daily.
The score reflects where all eight metrics sit relative to their historical distributions. A low Barometer score means multiple indicators are simultaneously in historically favorable accumulation ranges. A high score means multiple indicators are simultaneously elevated — historically associated with late-cycle conditions.
Current reading (May 22, 2026): Bitcoin Barometer at 21/100 — CHILL zone. Bitcoin price: $77,107.
A score of 21 means the aggregate of all eight indicators is sitting in the lower 21st percentile of historical readings — a range that, based on Bitcoin's history, has tended to be a relatively favorable entry zone compared to scores above 60-70.
What to Do With This Information
On-chain data is not a timing tool. It doesn't tell you the price will go up next week, or next month. What it does is provide a historical context for where Bitcoin sits in its market cycle — so that when you make decisions, you're making them with data rather than emotion or short-term price action.
The investors who have historically done best with Bitcoin have tended to be those who accumulated when the on-chain data suggested the market was depressed, and reduced exposure when the data suggested the market was extended. Not perfectly, not with precise timing — but systematically, with a framework.
That's what tools like the Bitcoin Barometer are designed to support.
Open the NakamotoNotes app to see the current Barometer score and the breakdown of all eight indicators — updated every day.
NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.
