NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.
Track the Puell Multiple alongside other on-chain indicators — consolidated into one daily Barometer score — in the NakamotoNotes app.
The Puell Multiple is one of the most distinctive on-chain indicators for Bitcoin — because it doesn't measure what investors are doing. It measures what miners are doing, and uses that as a proxy for where the market is in the broader cycle.
The insight behind the Puell Multiple is simple but powerful: miners are the only participants who must sell regularly. They have electricity bills, hardware costs, and operational overhead. Unlike retail investors who can hold forever, miners are structurally compelled to convert Bitcoin into fiat. When miners are under financial stress — when their Bitcoin revenue doesn't cover their costs — they sell everything. When they're highly profitable, they tend to hold. This selling pressure dynamic creates measurable patterns in on-chain data.
What Is the Puell Multiple?
The Puell Multiple was developed by David Puell in 2019. The formula:
Puell Multiple = Daily Coin Issuance (USD) ÷ 365-Day Moving Average of Daily Coin Issuance (USD)
Breaking this down:
- Daily Coin Issuance (USD): The value of all Bitcoin mined in a single day, calculated in US dollars. This is the total revenue entering the market from mining.
- 365-Day Moving Average: The annual average of that same daily issuance, smoothing out price volatility and normalizing for cycle position.
The result is a ratio. When it's above 1.0, current miner revenue is above the annual average. When below 1.0, miners are earning less than their annual average — a potential sign of stress. Extreme readings in either direction have historically marked cycle turning points.
Why Miners Drive Bitcoin Cycles
Understanding the Puell Multiple requires understanding why miners matter so much to Bitcoin's price cycles.
Mining is a capital-intensive business. Miners invest heavily in ASICs (specialized hardware), data center infrastructure, and electricity contracts — often years in advance. Their economics are driven by:
- Bitcoin price: Higher price = more revenue per block
- Mining difficulty: More competition = fewer bitcoins per terahash
- Halving events: Every 4 years, the block reward halves — instantly cutting miner revenue in half at constant prices
- Electricity cost: Fixed cost that must be covered regardless of Bitcoin's price
After each halving, miners face an immediate revenue shock. Unless Bitcoin's price rises proportionally (which it historically has, but with a delay), miners with higher electricity costs are pushed toward unprofitability. This forces capitulation selling — exactly the type of forced supply that drives Bitcoin to cycle lows.
Conversely, during bull markets when price rises far faster than difficulty adjusts, miners become extremely profitable. Their BTC holdings accumulate. The market isn't receiving the constant selling pressure it otherwise would. This supply tightness contributes to price acceleration.
Reading the Puell Multiple
| Puell Multiple Range | Miner Economics | Historical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Above 4–8+ | Extreme profitability | Miners earning 4–8× their annual average. Historically marks cycle tops — miners begin strategically selling into strength. |
| 1.0 – 4.0 | Above-average profitability | Bull market territory. Miners profitable and holding. Price typically trending upward. |
| 0.5 – 1.0 | Near breakeven | Miner revenue near or slightly below annual average. Transitional zone — often late bear or early recovery. |
| Below 0.5 | Stress / capitulation | Miners earning well below their annual average. Weaker miners shutting off hardware. Historically a strong long-term accumulation zone. |
Puell Multiple at Bitcoin's Historical Turning Points
2013 Cycle
The Puell Multiple exceeded 10 during Bitcoin's December 2013 peak. Miner revenue was at extreme historical highs relative to the annual baseline. The correction that followed was 84%. By 2015, the Puell Multiple had fallen into the low 0.3–0.5 range as miner economics deteriorated — exactly the zone that preceded the next bull run.
2017–18 Cycle
In late 2017, the Puell Multiple reached 7–10 as Bitcoin surged toward $20,000. Miners were extremely profitable relative to their annual average. The 2018 bear market pushed it below 0.5 during the December 2018 bottom near $3,200. That low reading preceded the 2019–20 recovery.
2020–21 Cycle
The COVID crash in March 2020 briefly pushed the Puell Multiple to 0.3–0.4 — well into the capitulation zone. This came just before the historic bull run to $69,000. At the bull market peak, the Puell Multiple again reached elevated levels (5–8), marking the danger zone. The 2022 bear market, combined with the June 2022 capitulation, pushed readings back toward 0.3–0.4.
The pattern is consistent: extreme highs mark tops, extreme lows mark bottoms. The Puell Multiple doesn't predict timing, but it reliably identifies the temperature of the mining ecosystem — which leads price, not follows it.
The Puell Multiple After Halvings
One of the most important applications of the Puell Multiple is tracking the post-halving period. When Bitcoin's block reward halves, the daily issuance in BTC immediately drops by 50%. At constant prices, this cuts the Puell Multiple roughly in half — which is why halvings are often followed by a brief period where the multiple drops before recovering as price adjusts upward.
Bitcoin's 4th halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Post-halving, miners with higher electricity costs were squeezed. The Puell Multiple reflects this adjustment: readings in the months immediately after a halving tend to be lower as the market re-prices miner economics.
Historically, the 12–18 months following a halving have been the strongest period for Bitcoin's price, as the combination of reduced supply issuance and growing demand eventually pushes price — and therefore Puell Multiple — significantly higher.
How the Puell Multiple Differs from MVRV and NUPL
The Bitcoin Barometer incorporates multiple on-chain indicators, each measuring something different:
- Mayer Multiple: Price vs. long-term trend (200-day moving average). Purely price-based.
- MVRV Z-Score: Market value vs. realized cost basis. Measures holder profitability relative to history.
- NUPL: Aggregate unrealized profit/loss. Measures network-wide holder psychology.
- Puell Multiple: Miner revenue vs. annual average. Measures miner economics and structural selling pressure.
The Puell Multiple adds a dimension the others miss: supply-side dynamics. Miners are the only participants who must sell. When they're under pressure, forced selling suppresses price. When they're profitable and holding, supply tightens. Understanding both demand-side (MVRV, NUPL) and supply-side (Puell) dynamics gives a more complete picture of cycle position than either view alone.
What the Current Puell Multiple Shows
The current Bitcoin Barometer score is 21 out of 100 — in the CHILL zone. The Puell Multiple component reflects that miner revenue is near or below the annual average:
- Post-halving adjustment: the April 2024 halving halved the block reward; miners have been operating in a reduced-revenue environment
- Current Bitcoin price (~$77,000) provides some relief relative to the halving-adjusted baseline, but the Puell Multiple remains in the conservative range
- Historically, Puell readings at this level have preceded periods of price recovery as the market re-prices miner economics upward
Like all individual indicators, the Puell Multiple is most informative when read alongside other signals. The Barometer's CHILL reading — supported by near-neutral MVRV, low-range NUPL, and below-average Puell — provides a multi-dimensional view of where Bitcoin sits in the current cycle.
Limitations of the Puell Multiple
- Halving distortion: Immediately after a halving, the Puell Multiple artificially drops because daily issuance falls sharply. The 365-day average takes time to catch up, making post-halving readings appear more bearish than miner economics actually are.
- Mining efficiency gains: Each generation of ASICs is dramatically more efficient than the last. A low Puell Multiple reading might not cause as much miner capitulation as it would have in 2018, because today's miners can be profitable at much lower prices.
- Geographic concentration: As mining has shifted to lower-electricity regions (Central Asia, parts of Africa and South America), average miner breakeven costs have fallen. This changes the interpretation of what constitutes "stress" at a given Puell level.
These limitations reinforce the value of the multi-indicator approach: no single metric tells the full story.
Track the Puell Multiple in the Bitcoin Barometer
The NakamotoNotes app tracks the Puell Multiple alongside MVRV Z-Score, Mayer Multiple, NUPL, and other indicators — consolidated into one daily Barometer score. Know where miners stand without tracking multiple dashboards.
