NakamotoNotes provides data and education, not financial advice. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.

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The Bitcoin Monthly RSI is one of the most reliable macro-level tools for identifying where Bitcoin is in its four-year market cycle. Unlike the RSI you see on hourly or daily charts — which generates signals constantly and produces significant noise — the monthly RSI operates on a timeframe that filters out short-term volatility and reveals the underlying cycle structure.

In every major Bitcoin bull and bear cycle since 2011, the monthly RSI has reached extreme readings near the top and near the bottom. Understanding what those readings look like — and where we are today — can help you make calmer, more data-driven decisions at the moments that matter most.

What Is RSI?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978 and is one of the most widely used momentum indicators in financial markets. It measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, expressing the result as a value between 0 and 100.

The standard interpretation:

• RSI above 70 — traditionally considered "overbought." Price has risen rapidly; a pullback may be due.
• RSI below 30 — traditionally considered "oversold." Price has fallen sharply; a recovery may follow.
• RSI near 50 — neutral momentum. Neither extreme buying nor selling pressure dominates.

On short timeframes (hourly, daily), these thresholds generate false signals constantly — assets can stay "overbought" for weeks while continuing higher. But on Bitcoin's monthly chart, extreme RSI readings become genuinely meaningful cycle signals.

Why the Monthly Timeframe Is Special

Bitcoin operates on a four-year halving cycle. Each halving reduces the new supply of Bitcoin entering circulation by 50%, creating supply shocks that historically precede major bull markets. The cycle unfolds over months and years — not hours and days.

A monthly RSI candle represents an entire month of price action compressed into a single data point. At this resolution:

• Daily noise cancels out
• Emotional short-term reactions average away
• What remains is pure cycle momentum

When the monthly RSI reaches extreme territory — above 85, or below 35 — it's not a noise artifact. It means months of sustained buying or selling pressure have accumulated. These extremes don't happen often, and when they do, they've historically coincided with major turning points.

Bitcoin Monthly RSI at Cycle Tops

Look at Bitcoin's major cycle peaks through the lens of monthly RSI:

2013 Peak (~$1,150)

Bitcoin's first major retail cycle saw the monthly RSI reach approximately 95 — an extreme reading that has never been surpassed. The move from $100 to $1,150 in a few months was so rapid and so relentless that momentum indicators were pinned near maximum. What followed was a multi-year bear market.

2017 Peak (~$20,000)

The 2017 bull run pushed the monthly RSI to approximately 90–93 at the December peak. Like 2013, the indicator was in extreme territory, reflecting months of parabolic price acceleration. The subsequent bear market erased 84% of the value over the next year.

2021 Peak (~$64,863 — April; ~$69,000 — November)

The 2021 cycle was more complex — two peaks rather than one. The April peak pushed monthly RSI to approximately 85–88. After a 50%+ correction, Bitcoin recovered to new highs in November, with the monthly RSI reaching approximately 80–83 on the second peak. The lower RSI reading on the second peak was a notable warning sign — less momentum on higher price, a classic bearish divergence at a macro scale.

The pattern is consistent: monthly RSI above 80 has historically meant the cycle is in its terminal phase. Above 85, a major top is typically very close.

Bitcoin Monthly RSI at Cycle Bottoms

The monthly RSI is equally useful for identifying bear market bottoms — and historically, these represent the most compelling buying opportunities in Bitcoin:

2015 Bottom (~$150–$200)

After the 2013–2014 collapse, Bitcoin's monthly RSI fell into the low 30s — deeply oversold territory. The duration of the bear market matched the depth of the RSI reading: a full year of sustained selling pressure. This RSI level proved to be a generational buying opportunity.

2018–2019 Bottom (~$3,150)

The 2018 bear market was severe. Monthly RSI fell to approximately 30–35, revisiting levels not seen since 2015. Every previous time Bitcoin's monthly RSI reached these depths, long-term holders who bought were eventually rewarded with 10x+ returns on the next cycle.

2022 Bottom (~$15,500)

The 2022 bear market — triggered by the FTX collapse and cascading leverage unwinding — was one of Bitcoin's most rapid. Monthly RSI fell to approximately 35–40, slightly above the 2018 trough but still deeply in oversold territory. Again, buyers at this level captured the majority of the subsequent 2024–2025 bull market gains.

Reading the Monthly RSI in Context

Here's a practical guide to interpreting Bitcoin's monthly RSI:

Monthly RSI Range	Historical Meaning	Typical Investor Response
Below 30	Extreme capitulation — rarely reached	Maximum fear; historically exceptional buy
30–40	Deep bear market; late-stage capitulation	Strong long-term buy zone; DCA accumulation
40–50	Bear market or early recovery	Cautious accumulation
50–60	Neutral — mid cycle	Hold; monitor trend direction
60–70	Bull market progression	Ride the trend; no action needed
70–80	Late bull market; elevated risk	Begin reducing leverage; tighten risk
80–90	Cycle top territory; major caution	Significantly reduce exposure
90+	Extreme euphoria — peak historically imminent	Maximum caution; major top near

The Power of Divergence

One of the most valuable applications of the monthly RSI is spotting bearish divergence — when Bitcoin makes a higher price high, but the RSI makes a lower high. This signals weakening momentum beneath a rising price.

The 2021 cycle provided a textbook example. Bitcoin's November 2021 high (~$69,000) exceeded the April 2021 high (~$64,863) — a new all-time high. But the monthly RSI in November was lower than in April. Price was higher; momentum was weaker. This divergence warned that the move higher lacked the conviction of the April peak. Within weeks, the bear market began in earnest.

Bearish divergence at multi-year highs has historically been one of the most reliable warning signs available to macro Bitcoin traders.

Monthly RSI vs. Other Indicators

The Bitcoin Monthly RSI works best as part of a multi-indicator framework:

• Mayer Multiple — Price relative to 200-day MA. Complements RSI: both can confirm overbought conditions simultaneously.
• MVRV Z-Score — On-chain: market cap vs. realized cap. Often reaches extremes at the same time as the monthly RSI.
• NUPL — Measures aggregate unrealized profit. High NUPL (euphoria) typically coincides with monthly RSI in the 80–90 range.
• Pi Cycle Top — Moving average crossover signal for cycle tops. When Pi Cycle proximity is high AND monthly RSI is above 80, the evidence for an imminent top is very strong.
• Puell Multiple — Miner economics cycle indicator. Extreme Puell readings (above 4) often coincide with monthly RSI in top territory.

Convergence is the key. When five indicators point toward the same conclusion simultaneously — as they did near the December 2017 and April 2021 peaks — the probability of being near a major top is high. The NakamotoNotes Bitcoin Barometer synthesizes all of these signals into a single daily score.

What Monthly RSI Doesn't Tell You

No indicator is complete on its own. The monthly RSI has important limitations:

• No precise timing. The monthly RSI can stay elevated for 2–3 months before the final peak. Selling the moment RSI hits 80 may mean exiting too early in a parabolic move.
• No price target. RSI tells you about momentum, not price levels. Bitcoin could top at $100,000 or $200,000 with similar RSI readings.
• Changing cycles. As Bitcoin's market cap grows and institutional ownership increases, volatility may dampen. Future cycles may reach lower RSI peaks and higher RSI troughs than historical precedent suggests.
• No intra-month signal. The monthly close is what matters. Mid-month readings can change significantly before the candle closes.

Tracking the Bitcoin Monthly RSI

The NakamotoNotes app includes the Bitcoin Monthly RSI as one of its core indicators. Rather than watching a raw chart, you see the RSI reading integrated into the overall Bitcoin Barometer score — which combines monthly RSI with MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, Pi Cycle Top, and more into a single daily signal.

Download NakamotoNotes on the App Store or Google Play.

Frequently Asked Questions

What RSI level signals a Bitcoin bear market?

There is no single level, but monthly RSI rolling over from above 80 — especially with bearish divergence — has historically preceded major bear markets. The bear market officially begins when price enters a sustained downtrend, but the RSI often warns in advance.

What RSI level is a good time to buy Bitcoin?

Monthly RSI in the 30–40 range has historically represented exceptional long-term buying opportunities. At these levels, sustained selling has reduced Bitcoin far below its typical cycle valuation. Every previous RSI reading below 40 has eventually been followed by a new all-time high.

Where is the Bitcoin Monthly RSI right now?

Check the NakamotoNotes app for the current reading — it's updated with each monthly candle close.

Is the monthly RSI better than the weekly or daily RSI for Bitcoin?

For cycle-level analysis, yes. The monthly RSI filters out short-term noise and captures the structural momentum of Bitcoin's four-year cycles. Daily and weekly RSI are better for shorter-term trading but generate more false signals at the macro level.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin Monthly RSI is a macro-level momentum indicator that has accurately reflected Bitcoin's cycle structure across every major bull and bear market since 2011. Its extremes — above 80 at tops, below 40 at bottoms — have provided actionable signals for investors who use data rather than emotion to guide their decisions.

Used alongside on-chain indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Mayer Multiple, Puell Multiple, and Pi Cycle Top, the monthly RSI gives you one more data point toward answering the question every Bitcoin investor wants answered: where are we in the cycle?

Track the Bitcoin Monthly RSI and all major cycle indicators in one place with NakamotoNotes.