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The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is one of Bitcoin's most revealing on-chain indicators. Unlike price-based tools that simply measure where Bitcoin is trading, SOPR measures the aggregate profit or loss of every Bitcoin transaction happening on-chain right now. It tells you whether the coins moving today are being sold at a profit or a loss — and that distinction carries powerful implications for where we are in the market cycle.

What Is SOPR?

SOPR was introduced by on-chain analyst Renato Shirakashi in 2019. The formula is straightforward:

SOPR = Price at which coins are sold ÷ Price at which those coins were acquired

More precisely: for each transaction on a given day, SOPR is calculated as the current USD value of the output divided by the USD value when the coins were last moved (their "creation price"). The daily SOPR aggregates all transactions that day into a single ratio.

• SOPR > 1.0 — Coins are being sold at a profit, on aggregate. Sellers are realizing gains.
• SOPR = 1.0 — Coins are being sold at exactly break-even. Sellers are at cost basis.
• SOPR < 1.0 — Coins are being sold at a loss, on aggregate. Sellers are realizing losses.

The logic is powerful: if you understand who is selling and at what profit or loss, you understand the psychological state of the market. People sell differently when they're up 300% versus when they're underwater.

The SOPR = 1 Level: Why It Matters

The level of SOPR = 1 (break-even) acts as a critical psychological and technical pivot point in the market cycle:

During bull markets: SOPR 1.0 is support

In bull markets, SOPR tends to stay above 1.0 — sellers are profitable and the market absorbs their selling. When SOPR dips toward 1.0 during a correction, it often bounces: many holders would rather not sell at break-even when they believe the price will go higher. This creates a natural floor near break-even.

When SOPR touches or briefly dips below 1.0 in a bull market and then recovers, it frequently signals a healthy correction that's about to reverse. This is a high-conviction "dip buy" signal used by sophisticated on-chain analysts.

During bear markets: SOPR 1.0 is resistance

In bear markets, the dynamic inverts. SOPR often stays below 1.0 as capitulating sellers realize losses. When SOPR attempts to recover to 1.0, it often fails — because holders who bought near recent highs are now at break-even and use the recovery to exit, capping the rally.

This "SOPR reclaim" pattern — when SOPR finally breaks above 1.0 and holds it as support — is historically one of the most reliable signals that a bear market is ending and recovery is beginning.

SOPR Across Bitcoin's Market Cycles

2017 Bull Market

Throughout most of 2017's parabolic bull market, SOPR remained well above 1.0 — often reaching 1.02–1.08 or higher during the most speculative phases. Every significant correction saw SOPR retrace toward 1.0 before bouncing. In the final blow-off top phase near $20,000, SOPR was very elevated, reflecting maximum speculative profit-taking.

2018 Bear Market

The 2018 bear market showed SOPR consistently below 1.0 as forced sellers and discouraged holders liquidated at losses. The SOPR reclaim of 1.0 in early 2019 coincided with the end of the bear market and the beginning of the recovery rally toward $13,000.

2020–2021 Bull Market

The COVID crash briefly pushed SOPR to extreme lows (0.85–0.90) in March 2020 — deep capitulation. The recovery and sustained hold of SOPR above 1.0 confirmed the bull market resumption. Through 2021, SOPR remained elevated, with periodic retests of 1.0 during corrections (notably in June 2021 and September 2021) that resolved into bounces, consistent with a bull market structure.

2022 Bear Market

The 2022 bear market featured SOPR consistently below 1.0 for extended periods as the full severity of the leverage unwind played out. The prolonged inability to reclaim 1.0 confirmed that selling pressure from distressed holders remained intense. As Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and began recovering in early 2023, the SOPR reclaim of 1.0 was an early positive signal.

Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR): Filtering Short-Term Noise

A refinement of the SOPR metric is the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR), which filters out coins that haven't been held for at least one hour. The purpose is to remove very short-term "same-day" transactions that represent technical blockchain operations (like exchange internal movements or consolidations) rather than genuine profit/loss-motivated selling.

aSOPR provides a cleaner signal for analyzing true investor behavior, and most serious on-chain analysis uses aSOPR rather than raw SOPR. The interpretation is identical — the 1.0 level remains the key pivot — but the signal is less noisy.

Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR) vs. Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR)

Like realized price and many other on-chain metrics, SOPR can be split by holder cohort:

Short-Term Holder SOPR (STH-SOPR)

Measures the profit/loss ratio of coins that have moved within the last 155 days. STH-SOPR is more volatile and more sensitive to near-term price action. It's most useful for identifying local tops and bottoms — extreme STH-SOPR readings (both high and low) have historically coincided with cycle turning points.

• Very high STH-SOPR (e.g., 1.05–1.10+) — recent buyers are selling aggressively at large profits. This is often seen near local tops as speculative buyers take gains.
• Very low STH-SOPR (e.g., 0.85–0.95) — recent buyers are selling at significant losses. This is the "capitulation" signal seen near bear market bottoms.

Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR)

Measures the profit/loss ratio of coins that haven't moved in over 155 days. LTH-SOPR is more stable and reflects the behavior of the most conviction-driven holders. Key pattern: when LTH-SOPR spikes very high (long-term holders are selling at large profits), it often marks the late stage of bull markets — because LTHs are distributing their holdings to incoming retail buyers.

SOPR as a Sentiment Gauge

Beyond its technical signals, SOPR functions as a direct measure of market psychology:

• High SOPR → Market participants are taking profits. Greed is evident. Selling pressure from profitable holders is a potential headwind.
• SOPR near 1.0 → Market is at equilibrium. Sellers are at break-even — a psychologically important level where further price moves are needed to drive behavior.
• Low SOPR → Market participants are selling at losses. Fear or forced liquidation is driving behavior. Historically, sustained low SOPR represents exhausted selling — the conditions for a bottom.

Limitations of SOPR

SOPR is a powerful tool but not a standalone indicator:

• Exchange flows affect raw SOPR. Large exchange deposits/withdrawals can distort raw SOPR readings on any given day. aSOPR (filtering out <1-hour movements) mitigates this significantly.
• Requires context. The same SOPR reading means different things in bull and bear markets. The SOPR = 1 level acts as support in bull markets and resistance in bear markets — reading it correctly requires understanding the broader cycle context.
• Lost coins inflate readings. Old coins from lost wallets that happen to move (e.g., someone recovering a lost wallet) can briefly distort SOPR with outlier profit ratios from coins last moved when Bitcoin was worth cents.
• Not a timing tool. Like most on-chain indicators, SOPR provides cycle-level context rather than precise timing. A bearish SOPR signal may precede a top by weeks; a bullish signal may precede a bottom by weeks.

SOPR and the NakamotoNotes Barometer

SOPR is one of the behavioral on-chain metrics that informs the type of cycle analysis the NakamotoNotes Bitcoin Barometer synthesizes. The Barometer's inputs include metrics that capture different facets of market behavior:

• MVRV Z-Score — valuation relative to aggregate cost basis (realized price)
• NUPL — net unrealized profit/loss across all holders
• Mayer Multiple — price relative to 200-day moving average
• Puell Multiple — miner revenue cycle dynamics
• Pi Cycle Top — moving average crossover top signal

Together, these indicators paint a composite picture of where Bitcoin stands in its cycle — more robust than any single metric, including SOPR.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does it mean when SOPR is below 1?

When SOPR is below 1, coins moving on-chain are being sold at an aggregate loss — sellers paid more than they're receiving. This typically happens during capitulation phases of bear markets when holders can no longer stomach further losses. Extended SOPR < 1 periods have historically preceded market bottoms.

What is a good SOPR value?

There's no single "good" value — context matters. In a bull market, SOPR > 1.0 is normal and healthy. A dip to 1.0 is a potential buying opportunity. In a bear market, SOPR < 1.0 is expected, and the key question is when it sustainably reclaims 1.0 (a recovery signal).

What is the difference between SOPR and aSOPR?

aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR) filters out coins that moved within the last hour, removing technical blockchain operations from the signal. aSOPR is generally considered cleaner for analyzing genuine investor profit/loss behavior.

Where can I track SOPR?

On-chain analytics platforms like Glassnode track SOPR in real time. The NakamotoNotes app synthesizes the cycle signals from multiple indicators — including those built on SOPR-related behavioral data — into a single daily Barometer score. Download on the App Store or Google Play.

Conclusion

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is one of the most behaviorally grounded indicators in Bitcoin on-chain analysis. By measuring whether coins are moving at profit or loss, it captures market psychology directly from blockchain data — revealing whether greed or fear is driving transactions at any given moment.

The SOPR = 1.0 level is one of Bitcoin's most reliable pivot points: support in bull markets, resistance in bear markets, and its reclaim after a bear market has historically been a high-conviction signal that the worst is over. Used alongside MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, Mayer Multiple, and the other indicators in the NakamotoNotes Barometer, SOPR helps round out a complete picture of Bitcoin's cycle position.

Track Bitcoin's full suite of on-chain cycle indicators with NakamotoNotes.