What the Bitcoin Barometer measures
The Bitcoin Barometer combines a fixed set of public Bitcoin indicators into a single 0–100% "heat" reading and a zone label (Chill, Neutral, Heated, Euphoric). It describes where current readings sit relative to their own historical ranges. It does not predict future price direction, and it is not personalized to any individual's situation.
This page documents the exact method — the same code path that powers the app's Barometer screen and the live dashboard — so the calculation can be checked rather than taken on trust. Zone-change push notifications currently use a related but narrower calculation that omits the two extended signals described below; this page documents the fuller calculation.
The eight indicators
Each indicator has its own thresholds, set from where that indicator has historically sat near past Bitcoin cycle extremes, and its own weight in the overall score (higher weight = more influence on the final reading).
| Indicator | What it measures | Weight | Green ≤ | Yellow ≤ | Red ≤ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly RSI | Relative Strength Index on Bitcoin's monthly price, 0–100 | 2 | 70 | 85 | 100 |
| Fear & Greed Index | Composite sentiment index, 0–100 | 1 | 65 | 80 | 100 |
| MVRV-Z Score | Market value vs. realized value, standardized | 3 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 8 |
| Mayer Multiple | Price ÷ 200-day moving average | 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 4 |
| Puell Multiple | Daily issuance value ÷ 365-day average issuance value | 3 | 2 | 4.5 | 6 |
| Google Search Trends | Normalized search interest for "Bitcoin", 0–100 | 1 | 55 | 75 | 100 |
| NUPL | Net Unrealized Profit/Loss across the network, % | 3 | 55 | 75 | 85 |
| Pi Cycle Top Proximity | 111-day MA as a % of 2× the 350-day MA | 2 | 80 | 95 | 100 |
These eight are the indicators shown as individual gauges throughout the app and site, and the ones referenced in Bitcoin Barometer posts and copy.
Two additional inputs to the overall score
For full transparency: the composite score also blends in two further signals derived from Bitcoin's own price history. They are not shown as separate gauges anywhere in the app or on the site today, but they do contribute to the single heat score and zone label.
| Signal | What it measures | Weight | Green ≤ | Yellow ≤ | Red ≤ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year High Proximity | Current price as a % of the trailing 2-year price high | 2 | 85 | 95 | 101 |
| 90-Day Rate of Change | % price change over the trailing 90 days | 1 | 25 | 60 | 200 |
How the readings become one score
Each indicator's raw reading is converted to a "heat" value between 0 and 2 using that indicator's own green/yellow/red thresholds above: 0 at the low end of its green range, roughly 0.8 at the green boundary, roughly 1.5 at the yellow boundary, and capped at 2 once a reading moves through the red range. This keeps every indicator on the same internal scale before combining them, regardless of what unit it's measured in.
Each indicator's heat value is then multiplied by its weight (see the tables above) and summed. The total is divided by the maximum possible weighted heat across all active indicators, producing one normalized figure from 0% to 100% — the number shown as the Barometer score.
The weights themselves (1 for Fear & Greed and 1 for Google Search Trends, 2 for RSI, 2 for Pi Cycle Proximity and 2 for 2-Year High Proximity, 3 for MVRV-Z, 3 for Mayer Multiple, 3 for Puell Multiple and 3 for NUPL, 1 for 90-Day Rate of Change) are a team judgment call about how much signal each measure has historically carried near cycle extremes — not the output of a formal statistical calibration.
Zone thresholds
The normalized 0–100% score maps to a zone label:
| Chill Zone | 0% – 25% |
| Neutral Zone | 25% – 50% |
| Heated Zone | 50% – 75% |
| Euphoric Zone | 75% – 100% |
Data sources
- Bitcoin price and price history (feeds Monthly RSI, Mayer Multiple, Pi Cycle Top Proximity, 2-Year High Proximity and 90-Day Rate of Change) — CoinGecko.
- Fear & Greed Index — alternative.me.
- MVRV-Z Score — Coin Metrics community API.
- NUPL and Puell Multiple — bgeometrics.com on-chain data.
- Google Search Trends — Google Trends data via SerpApi.
Known limitations
- Descriptive, not predictive. The score describes current readings relative to their historical ranges. It does not forecast future price direction — the same zone has preceded very different subsequent outcomes across past cycles.
- Judgment-call weights and thresholds. The per-indicator thresholds and weights above were set from where each indicator has historically sat near past cycle extremes, observed across a small number of Bitcoin market cycles — not derived by a formal statistical method, and may need revisiting as Bitcoin's market structure changes.
- Data-source outages use a documented placeholder, not a blank. If a single indicator's data source is briefly unavailable, that indicator's contribution for that reading falls back to a predefined neutral value rather than being left out, so the Barometer can keep returning a reading. This means a short outage in one input is not visible in the displayed score.
- Not personalized. Everyone sees the same reading, regardless of individual holdings, risk tolerance, time horizon, or jurisdiction.
Not financial advice. Nakamoto Notes provides data and education, not personalized investment advice or recommendations. Bitcoin is volatile; you can lose money. Do your own research.